Physics

Drake Equation Calculator

Estimate the number of communicating civilizations in the galaxy.

Star formation rate (/yr)

Fraction with planets

Habitable planets per system

Fraction developing life

Fraction developing intelligence

Fraction that communicate

Civilization lifetime (yr)

Calculated Output

Communicating civilizations 54

Formula: N = R*·fp·ne·fl·fi·fc·L

Step-by-Step Breakdown

1. Values used:

2. Star formation rate = 1.5 /yr

3. Fraction with planets = 0.9

4. Habitable planets per system = 0.4

5. Fraction developing life = 0.5

6. Fraction developing intelligence = 0.1

7. Fraction that communicate = 0.2

8. Civilization lifetime = 10,000 yr

10. Communicating civilizations = 54

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The math behind it

N multiplies seven factors from star formation rate to civilization lifetime. The huge uncertainty is in the later terms.

The default optimistic values give about 54 civilizations.

Is it a real prediction?

No — it's a framework for discussion; the factors are highly uncertain.