Drake Equation Calculator

Estimate the number of communicating civilizations in the galaxy.

Communicating civilizations 54

Formula: N = R*·fp·ne·fl·fi·fc·L

Step-by-step with your numbers:
1. Values used:
2. Star formation rate = 1.5 /yr
3. Fraction with planets = 0.9
4. Habitable planets per system = 0.4
5. Fraction developing life = 0.5
6. Fraction developing intelligence = 0.1
7. Fraction that communicate = 0.2
8. Civilization lifetime = 10,000 yr
9.
10. Communicating civilizations = 54
Did we solve your problem today?

The Drake equation estimates how many detectable civilizations might exist in the Milky Way.

The math behind it

N multiplies seven factors from star formation rate to civilization lifetime. The huge uncertainty is in the later terms.

Worked example

The default optimistic values give about 54 civilizations.

FAQ

Is it a real prediction?

No — it's a framework for discussion; the factors are highly uncertain.